Why the US-Iran conflict sent traders to Hyperliquid — and pushed HYPE into crypto’s top 10

Hyperliquid’s HYPE token moved into the top 10 crypto assets by market capitalization, beating Cardano’s ADA amid a 1,700-fold rise in trading volume tied to oil volatility during the US-Iran conflict.

Notably, Bitcoin benefited significantly from the broader bid for crypto during the conflict, but HYPE gained a second channel as traders used Hyperliquid’s platform to express views on oil around the clock, including on weekends when conventional futures venues were closed.

From March 1 to March 18, HYPE’s market value rose from about $8.16 billion to $10.66 billion, a gain of about 30.7%, according to CryptoSlate’s data. Over the same stretch, the token climbed from No. 13 to No. 10 in the site’s rankings.

The move built on momentum already forming across decentralized perpetual futures markets. Hyperliquid had been gaining significant market share as traders shifted more derivatives activity on-chain and as the venue expanded its reach beyond crypto-native speculation.

The US-Iran conflict accelerated that trend by giving traders a reason to use crypto rails for real-time exposure to oil-linked volatility.

That gave HYPE a different profile from many large-cap tokens, as traders no longer priced the token solely as exposure to a fast-growing crypto venue. Instead, they were also pricing in a platform that became a live venue for macro hedging while legacy markets were offline.

Oil volatility pushes flow on-chain

The latest conflict began after US-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, setting off a rise in oil prices and a scramble across markets to reprice supply risk.

Since then, Brent crude has settled above $100 a barrel, while analysts have tracked the possibility of further gains if shipping routes or regional energy infrastructure are disrupted.

Hyperliquid became one of the places where that view showed up in volume, as trading in oil-linked perpetual contracts on the platform expanded quickly as the war developed.

Data from Flowscan showed that cumulative oil-futures volume on Hyperliquid rose from about $339 million on Feb. 28 to more than $10 billion as of press time.

Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson explained that the high Hyperliquid volume was a sign that traders were using the on-chain venue to hedge a commodity that still sits at the center of the global economy.

According to him, oil had been about 2.5 times more volatile during the war than in the two weeks before the conflict and pointed to the gap that forms when traditional futures venues close for the weekend while headlines continue to move.

He added:

“Wartime forces markets to adapt. Sometimes you don’t realize you need a solution until it stares you in the face. I think that’s what’s happening here with weekend hedging. Hyperliquid’s weekend oil sessions have grown 1,700x in just a month.”

Notably, Hyperliquid had confirmed the trend, saying that real-world asset trading on the venue repeatedly set records, surpassing $1.3 billion in open interest and $1.4 billion in weekend volume.

The company said the platform had become a venue for 24/7 price discovery in oil, metals, and equity indexes when standard markets were shut.

Despite this, the scale still remained small compared with legacy energy markets. Nelson noted that traditional futures venues handle about $18.5 billion in WTI contracts on an average trading day, or roughly 35 times Hyperliquid’s best weekend oil session.

Even so, the pace of Hyperliquid’s growth drew attention because it suggested a market segment was being built during live geopolitical stress rather than through a slower cycle of product launches and user incentives.

Revenue structure helps explain HYPE’s rally

HYPE rose alongside that activity because Hyperliquid’s structure links platform revenue more directly to token demand than many crypto networks do.

According to Hyperliquid’s documentation, trading fees are directed to an Assistance Fund, which uses them to buy HYPE on the open market.

Tokens held in the fund are burned, reducing supply over time. Users who stake HYPE also receive fee discounts on the platform. The result is a model that allows traders to view the token more like an exchange-linked asset whose value can rise with trading volume.

That framework became more relevant as war-driven oil trading pushed volume higher. In simple terms, more trading produced more fees, and more fees increased the amount of HYPE bought back and removed from circulation. The market had a revenue-based reason to reprice the token.

DefiLlama data showed Hyperliquid generated about $182.5 billion in perpetual futures volume over 30 days, $42.69 billion over seven days, and $6.76 billion over 24 hours.

The platform also posted about $45.4 million in 30-day earnings, which implied roughly $554 million on an annualized basis if activity held near that level.

Considering this, Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, described Hyperliquid as the largest revenue-generating crypto project outside stablecoins.

He said 97% of that revenue was being used to buy back HYPE from the market, a design he argued gave the token a stronger link to platform cash flow than many other crypto assets. According to him, Hyperliquid could continue to take derivative volume from centralized exchanges while adding new products to expand revenue.

Some of that product expansion is already underway through HIP-3, Hyperliquid’s framework for permissionless perpetual listings, which has allowed the trading of real-world assets. The trading platform is also looking to enable prediction markets and options-style derivatives as part of its array of features.

The combination of these developments, he argued, would bolster HYPE’s potential to reach $150 by August next year.

A war trade becomes a market-structure test

Meanwhile, the next question is whether that wartime flow turns into a standing category of demand.

The continued use of Hyperliquid for oil-linked and metals-related contracts after tensions cool would support the case that 24/7 macro trading on crypto rails can hold a larger share of activity.

However, a retreat in those volumes, once energy prices settle, would weaken the revenue assumptions that helped drive HYPE higher this month.

Meanwhile, there are also near-term risks. Token unlocks remain on the calendar, including an April 6 unlock that traders will monitor for supply pressure. At the same time, questions remain after research into Hyperliquid’s October 2025 stress event raised concerns about how the platform managed a large liquidation and the use of auto-deleveraging.

Even with those issues, the move into the top tier of crypto assets reflected a clear sequence. The US-Iran war lifted oil volatility. Oil volatility drove demand for markets that stayed open around the clock.

Hyperliquid captured part of that demand through on-chain perpetuals, and HYPE benefited because the platform’s fee structure feeds directly into token buybacks and burns.

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